Tonight

MVC Tourney: #2 Creighton vs. #7 Wichita St, 7:05 pm
The Blue Jays of Creighton are perhaps the best mid-major in all of mid-majordom, behind only Butler. Their tourney resume is without a true signature win (New Mexico in mid-November is a stretch for me). And wouldn’t you know it, they’ve already lost once to the Shockers (by 13!)

Saturday

Southern Conference Tourney: #1 Davidson vs. #4 Appalachian St./#5 Georgia Southern, 2 pm
This season’s Davidson lacks that je ne sais quoi that launched them into the little guy stratosphere in 2008. Perhaps it’s the new toy luster wearing off of Stephen Curry (he’s still the best guard in the country); or maybe it’s that they didn’t match the 19 game winning streak streak they rode into last season’s SoCon tourney. Yeah, this year they have losses to College of Charleston and The Citadel, but they also came pretty darn close to taking down the likes of Oklahoma and Duke. A neutral-court win over West Virginia is always a nice thing to have in your pocket, but they really missed an opportunity to shore up an at-large bid when they got thumped at home by Butler two weeks ago.

Sunday

WCC Tourney: #1 Gonzaga vs. #4 Santa Clara/#5 San Diego/#8 Loyola Marymount
No mid-major in recent history has been as polarizing come tourney time as Gonzaga. It’s another year, another undefeated WCC campaign, and another surefire at-large bid in waiting. If Mark Few were to drop the ball this weekend, you’ll here major conference bubbles bursting from coast to coast.

With that in mind, I’ve dedicated a depressingly substantial chunk of my life to clearing up all possible scenarios in play this weekend.

It might be a good idea to take some time time to glance over the official ACC Basketball Tournament Seeding Procedures. Things get a bit hectic ahead.

Now, take a deep breath and let’s get started.

Possible #1 seeds: North Carolina, Duke
If Carolina takes care of Duke at home on Sunday, they wrap up the regular season in sole possession of first place in the conference. It’s that simple.

If, however, the Heels were to falter to the Devils, the two would finish in a tie atop the conference standings and our first tiebreaker scenario would come into play. Here’s where things start to get messy, so bear with me.

Following tiebreaker #2, the top seed would go to the team with the highest winning percentage against the next highest ranked team or teams. If Wake Forest wins on Sunday, they would be that next team at 10-6. In that case, the tiebreaker would go to Duke, who split their two meetings with the Deacons (Carolina lost their only game against Wake in Winston-Salem).

If Wake loses to Clemson they would be tied at 10-6. Florida State could also be at 10-6 if they defeat Virginia Tech, but it doesn’t matter if they win or lose. Against any combination of these three teams, Carolina has a better winning percentage than Duke and would thus be the #1 seed.

#2 seed: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest
If Duke loses to Carolina and Wake defeats Clemson, both teams will be tied at 11-5 and, having split their regular season contest, force us to visit tiebreaker #1 and compare each team’s record against the highest ranked team in the conference. Wake defeated North Carolina in their only meeting, so advantage Deacons. They would get the #2 seed while Duke falls to #3.

#3 seed: Duke, Wake Forest
Duke can fall to the #3 if Wake defeats Clemson as described above. However, if Wake and Duke are both winners this weekend, Wake will be alone at 11-5 and will take the #3. Ah, that wasn’t so difficult.

But if Wake loses to Clemson they both end up tied at 10-6. And if Florida State takes care of Virginia Tech, they too crash the 10-6 party. We now introduce tiebreaker #3–a dear friend of tiebreaker #2′s used in situations with three-way ties. Tiebreaker #3 states that “the combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties will be broken, and seedings assigned, based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records.” Wake and Florida State were both 2-1 here; Clemson was 1-2, so they’re out of the running. We now go back to tiebreaker #1 which shows grants Wake the #3 based on their head-to-head record with the Seminoles. FSU would be #4 and Clemson #5.

If Florida State loses, though, and Clemson defeats Wake, Wake would still get the #3 seed based on their win against Carolina. Clemson would now be the #4 seed.

#4 seed: Clemson, Florida St.
If Clemson and Florida State both lose this weekend, Florida State is the #4 seed. FSU is assured at least the #4 seed with a win against Virginia Tech.

#5 seed: Clemson, Boston College
If Clemson loses and Boston College defeats Georgia Tech, BC is the #5 based on their head-to-head record with the Tigers. If both teams lose, Clemson is the #5.

#6 seed: Clemson, Boston College
Clemson is #6 with a loss and a BC win. If BC loses this weekend, the #6 is theirs. They’ll be tied at 8-8 with Virginia Tech and Maryland (if either wins), but BC wins all the tiebreakers.

#7 seed: Maryland, Virginia Tech
This one’s easy: if only one of the two teams at 7-8 wins this weekend, they take the #7 seed. If both win, Virginia Tech is the #7 on account of their win over Maryland. If both lose they’ll fall into a three-way tie at 9-7 with the winner of the NC State/Miami game. If NC State defeats Miami, Maryland is the #7 seed due to their record in the three-way tiebreaker. If Miami wins, Maryland still takes #7 thanks to their win of North Carolina.

#8 seed: Maryland, Virginia Tech
If both Maryland and Virginia Tech lose and NC State wins this weekend, Virginia Tech is the #8 seed. If Virginia Tech and Miami win and Maryland loses, VT is the #7 seed (as described above) and Maryland wins the #8 tiebreaker with Miami due to their win over North Carolina.

#9/10 seed: Miami, NC State
Miami and NC State are playing this out like gentlemen and deciding it on the court. Winner take all! Well, winner take #9, at least.

#11 seed: Virginia
#12 seed: Georgia Tech
I’m breathing a sigh of relief at the marked simplification of determining the bottom four seeds over their more successful brethren. You should be doing the same if you actually read through all that.

Speaking of Gonzalez, the coming-of-age guard who was all but left left for dead after a woeful freshman campaign was the story of the night. He made plays all over the court and his line in the box score shows it: five points, six assists, five rebounds, and two steals in just 24 minutes. Ben McCauley was the Pack’s leading scorer with 20. Fellow senior Courtney Fells dropped 11 but didn’t play in the second half due to a groin injury. Rakim Sanders led the Eagles with 21 and made things interesting late with a pair of threes. Rice had a double at 14-11 but, as mentioned, was mostly absent in the second half.

The Wolfpack conclude their home schedule at 5-1, the Eagles are finished on the road at 4-4.

North Carolina 86, Virginia Tech 78
The Heels stave off the Hokies and inch closer towards locking up a #1 seed. With the loss, VT won’t finish better than 7-9 in-conference and is in peril of slipping off the bubble and into the NIT. Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson both had a monstrous night; each dropped 22 points, Hansbrough added 15 rebounds. A.D. Vassallo led the Hokies’ failed second half surge with a pair of threes around the nine-minute mark. Curiously, it isn’t often that a team shoots 100% from the charity stripe and loses a close one. VT’s 17-17 free-throw performance (Jeff Allen alone was 10-10) was rendered moot in the face of Carolina’s 26-34 rebuttal. Yes, the Tar Heels shot twice as many FTs as the Hokies. Go figure.

Georgia Tech 79, Miami 68
Champagne is being uncorked, Disney World commercials are being filmed, cliches are abounding: the Yellow Jackets fought off history tonight and dodged bearing the cross of the first ACC team in nearly two decades to go 1-for-season. The Canes all but rolled over and died, shooting an abysmal 32% from the field despite having four players in double figures (including double-doubles from Dwayne Collins and Brian Asbury). Tech’s senior guard Lewis Clinch went out with a bang: 30 points, largely on 9-16 shooting from behind the arc.

The places Miami’s fleeting NCAA hopes squarely in the proverbial crapper. It also sets up a rather interesting contest on Sunday in Coral Gables with NC State. Both teams are 6-9 in-conference, the winner will finish in 9th place and add another bullet to their, uh, NIT resume.

Virginia 57, Clemson 75
To quote a post-game Trevor Booker, “When we get the ball down low and the opportunity is there, we’re going to try and dunk it.” And how! Oliver Purnell abandoned the exterior gameplan that failed in Clemson’s first meeting with Virginia and emphasized close-range, high-percentage shots. Clemson scored half as many points from outside the arc as in that first game and nearly 59% of their points came from inside the arc (their highest percentage since mid-January). Terrence Oglesby led the Tigers with 18, Booker dropped a 13-15 double-double, and K.C. Rivers, who never really got things going, picked up more fouls (4) than field goals (1).

Florida St. 81, Duke 84
Played a full seven possessions faster than the first meeting between Duke and FSU back in January, last night’s game was far more efficient and far more entertaining. Florida St. bumped their eFG% from the first game by a mere 24 points, out-shot Duke by 9 points and still couldn’t come up with the win. Oh yeah, Toney Douglas scored 27 and Solomon Alabi and Uche Echefu both had double-doubles–still not enough. Gerald Henderson was Duke’s sole double-double man, scoring 21 and picking up 10 boards, but Kyle Singler, Elliot Williams, and Jon Scheyer all chipped in with double digit point totals.

With the win, Duke will play for a tie for first in the conference Sunday in Chapel Hill. Meanwhile, Clemson’s win and Florida State’s loss moves both teams to 9-6 in the conference, tied for the fourth and final first round bye in the conference tourney.

Wake Forest 65, Maryland 63
The Deacons’ win locks up a first round bye, while the Terrapins’ loss moves the panic meter in College Park to eleven. Maryland took exactly two shots from the charity stripe (they made both) and Dave Neal a pretty outstanding senior night, from an individual perspective; he hit five of six three-point attempts, scoring 19 overall, in just 23 minutes of action.

Virginia 9-16 (3-11) @ Clemson 22-6 (8-6), 7pm
“We just have to do what we’ve been doing — coming out with energy and playing hard, things like that,” said Virginia sophomore Jeff Jones. At 3-11, maybe Dave Leitao should have better defined “things like that” in October. The kinesthetic K.C. Rivers (his words, not mine) plays his final game in Littlejohn tonight. Read fluff pieces here and here. Oliver Purnell has been named a finalist for the USBWA’s coach of the year award.

Florida St. 22-7 (9-5) @ Duke 24-5 (10-4), 8pm
Have the Crazies lost their edge? It’s senior night in Cameron, too. “Tonight, officially, Greg Paulus becomes the past of Duke Basketball.” What a glowing farewell.Regarding their imminent NCAA berth, the Seminoles won’t believe it until they see it.

Wake Forest 22-5 (9-5) @ Maryland 18-10 (7-7), 9pm
Dan Collins takes a fond look back at the month that was in Wake Forest hoops. Meanwhile, Ish Smith has no problem playing second fiddle to Jeff Teague. Elsewhere, the Washington Post scouts the Deacs, Gary Williams ain’t sweatin’ his team’s tourney chances and Maryland senior Dave Neal says goodbye to the Comcast Center.

Originally a four-star recruit out of Lithuania, Pocius was part of a class that included Greg Paulus, Josh McRoberts, Eric Boateng, and Jamal Boykin.

Pocius hasn’t been seen much during ACC play this season. He’s averaging just 6.6 minutes and 1.5 points per game. He’ll participate in the senior night ceremony on Tuesday along with Paulus and David McClure.

The turnover bug that’s haunted NC State all season reared its head again last night against the Terps, just when it looked to be under control. Courtney Fells led the charge for the Pack, coughing up the ball six times.

Guarded by the much larger Fells (NC State’s de facto defensive specialist), Greivis Vasquez almost matched his career scoring high. All told, he piled up 33 in 38 minutes, buffeted by 4-8 shooting from behind the arc. Maryland also benefited from a surprising offensive output from Dave Neal, who hit three three-pointers of his own.

Sidney Lowe ran his offense through Tracy Smith, who scored 19 and was a rebound shy of a double-double.

With last night’s win, Maryland continues to quietly play their way into NCAA contention. A win at home on Tuesday against Wake could go a long way towards sealing the deal.

Four Factors

Maryland
eFG: 57.1, TOV Rate: 12.7, ORB Rate: 13.3, FTA/FGA: 14.3

NC State
eFG: 55.4, TOV Rate: 25.3, ORB Rate: 23.1, FTA/FGA: 30.4

Tickets punched

1. North Carolina 25-3 (11-3), Wed @ VT, Sun vs. Duke
Barring an absolute, 0-3 meltdown, the Heels a lock for a #1 seed that would have them playing their first two games in Greensboro.

2. Duke 24-3 (10-4), Tue vs. FSU, Sun @ UNC
Duke is looking like a #2 seed right now, but that could change with two big wins this week over tourney-bound teams. Those coupled with at least one win next week in Atlanta could have Coach K and company splitting practice time in Greensboro with Carolina.

3. Wake Forest 22-5 (9-5), Tue @ UMD, Sun vs. Clemson
Wake has struggled mightily at times this season. There are wins over Duke and Carolina at home, but losses to Georgia Tech and NC State on the road. Without any notable out-of-conference wins to hang their hat on, even a sweep of quality competition in the final week probably won’t land Wake any higher than a #4 seed.

4. Florida St. 22-7 (9-5), Tue @ Duke, Sun vs. VT
Florida State’s out-of-conference work bodes well for a #5 or #6 seed. Despite a slip up at Northwestern, they have wins over Cincinnati, Cal, and Florida. They get another shot at Duke Tuesday in Cameron and need to make the most of it to crack a #5 seed. Even at a #6, they’ll probably be my sleeper pick for a Sweet Sixteen run. With a guard like Toney Douglas, you have to like a team’s chances in March.

5. Clemson 22-6 (8-6), Tue vs. UVA , Sun @ Wake
The Tigers have wins versus Duke and at Illinois but lost to Virginia and were blown out by Carolina. A win in Winston-Salem and a good run in the conference tourney could land Clemson as high as a #4 seed. I’d slot them in at a #5 for now.

6. Boston College 20-9 (8-6), Wed @ NCSU, Sat vs. GT
Boston College has quietly been hanging around the bubble all season. Horrifying losses to St. Louis and Harvard should hurt their seeding, but wins over Duke and Carolina and the almost certainty of a winning conference record keep them in the dance. They’re a #8 seed in my bracket.

Still have some work to do

7. Maryland 18-10 (7-7), Tue vs. Wake, Sat @ UVA
Maryland looks to finish at .500 in the conference, which in most years is enough to get any ACC team in. This, however, is where the logjam begins. I don’t see more than eight (and likely only seven) ACC clubs getting invites. With three teams potentially finishing at 8-8, that means someone is getting left out. If they don’t win out, Gary Williams likely needs one, maybe two wins in Atlanta before he can rest easy.

8. Virginia Tech 17-11 (7-7), Wed vs. UNC, Sun @ FSU
The Hokies hit the skids in a big way two weeks ago. After battling back to defeat NC State in overtime, they took care of Georgia Tech and were sitting pretty at 6-3 in the conference. Then the bottom fell out. They dropped their next three to Maryland, Virginia, and Florida State and things were looking dicey at 6-6. A win at Clemson was a potential season-saver, but they again let a close one slip away to Duke. This week for VT is as make-or-break as a week can be in college basketball. They have two very winnable games against two very impressive opponents. Win and they’re in; lose and they’ll need at least an appearance in the ACC title game to have a shot at an at-large bid.

9. Miami 17-10 (6-8), Wed @ GT, Sat vs. NCSU
With Virginia Tech’s odds looking rather slim, Miami has a great shot at finishing 8-8 and leap-frogging the Hokies as one of the last teams to make it into the tournament. A slip-up to bottom-feeders Georgia Tech or NC State and they’re likely staring down an NIT invite.

NIT-bound

10. North Carolina St. 15-12 (5-9), Wed vs. BC, Sat @ Miami
It was just a week ago that the Wolfpack were sitting at 5-7 with an opportunity to run the table and make a surprise appearance in the dance. That was fun to think about but they flushed that chance with loses to Wake and Maryland. Another win this week should assure them of an NIT birth, though, and that’s definitely a step in the right direction for the oft-maligned Sidney Lowe.

Better luck next season

There isn’t much to say about these guys. The teams at the top of the list thank you for the victories. Enjoy the sights in Atlanta, Cavalier fans. And, hey, Yellow Jackets, at least you don’t have to travel too far!

11. Virginia 9-16 (3-11), Tue @ Clemson, Sat vs. UMD
12. Georgia Tech 10-17 (1-13), Wed vs. Miami, Sat @ BC

The only contest on today’s docket is a primetime affair between the Terrapins and Wolfpack in Raleigh. Tip-off is a mere two hours away, so let’s dive right into the preview.

Maryland, 17-10 (6-7) @ NC State, 15-11 (5-8), 7:30pm (FSN)

Maryland has taken the past three meetings with State dating back to 2007. Last season’s only match-up between the two schools saw the Pack implode in the second half after leading by two at the break. James Gist went off on JJ Hickson, Gavin Grant and company, scoring 30 and coming just a rebound shy of a double-double.

This is a very different game than that, of course; for starters, none of the guys in the previous paragraph are suiting up tonight.

Both teams enter the RBC Center tonight trying to quickly salvage what is left of their season. Both teams have run hot and cold this year, with upset wins and upsetting losses, coaches on and off and on the hot seat again, and lineups that have shifted as players underachieve and underwhelm. If either squad hopes to cash in on their very long odds of making the tournament, a run has to begin tonight and last through the end of the regular season and deep into the ACC Tournament.

For the at-home Wolfpack, increased production from Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley, and Courtney Fells would go a long way towards achieving those goals. Combined, the three are averaging somewhere south of ten points each over the last four games. Those four games include closer than expected losses to UNC and Wake Forest; losses than could have been wins with gaudier offensive numbers from three guys who were supposed to be setting the pace for Sidney Lowe‘s team.

For the Terrapins, the formula for a W tonight is simple: get Vasquez going early and keep him out of foul trouble. Outside of Wake Forest’s visit to Raleigh, State hasn’t been able to shut down an explosive point guard all season. Vasquez is a legitimate First-Team All-ACC point guard who can play 35 minutes a game, score 20, and pick up five or six assists. Simply put, the Maryland offense runs through Greivis Vasquez; his defense isn’t awful, either. If he doesn’t get saddled with two or three quick fouls (like in the Duke game) he can give the Pack all kinds of trouble.

Fearless Prediction – Maryland: 84, State: 75
Line of the Game – Vasquez: 18 pts, 6 ast

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